MIDDLE EAST POLICY OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION: RETROSPECTIVE AND FORECASTING DISCOURSE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2292.2025/1-60/5-10Keywords:
USA, Middle East, D. Trump, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Arab-Israeli conflict.Abstract
Introduction. Based on a retrospective analysis of the features, main priorities, and mechanisms for implementing the Middle East policy of the first administration of D. Trump, a prognostic analysis of US policy in the Middle East under the second administration of Donald Trump is created.
Methods. General scientific and special research methods were used, in particular, a systemic approach, structural-functional analysis, comparative analysis, historical-comparative, and analytical-prognostic methods.
Results. The conceptual, theoretical, and doctrinal foundations of D. Trump's Middle East policy were identified and analyzed. The main means of implementing US geopolitical and geoeconomic interests in the Middle East were identified and an assessment of the effectiveness of these means and the degree of their correspondence to the manifestations of the goal was provided. The specification of the position of the D. Trump administration on the main regional problems is clarified, in particular, the fight against international terrorism, the Arab-Israeli and Palestinian-Israeli settlement, the Syrian crisis, the problem of non-proliferation of WMD.
Conclusions. The leadership of the USA as a system-forming element of the Middle East regional system, which determined the main directions of the country's movement in the region, is a thing of the past, they have not begun the main directions of its transformation, which is a consequence not so much of the influence of subjective and factors, but of objective processes of global regional transformations. It is proved that the Middle East policy of D. Trump is aimed at creating an optimal balance of power for the USA and manipulating it to ensure its own interests. The Middle East policy of the D. Trump administration will have a hereditary character and will be implemented during his second term in the White House.
References
Кіссінджер, Г. (2017). Світовий порядок. Роздуми про характер націй в історичному контексті. Пер. з англ. Н. Коваль. Київ: Наш формат.
Коппель О. А., Пархомчук О. С., Пархомчук А.Д. (2024). Трансформація пріоритетів США у двосторонніх відносинах з країнами Близького Сходу в контексті глобальної та регіональної міжнародно-політичної ситуації. Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Міжнародні відносини, 59(2) 12-17. https://intern.bulletin.knu.ua/article/view/2521/2813
Офіційний сайт уряду Ізраїлю. https://mfa.gov.il/MFA/PressRoom/2020/Pages/Joint-Statement-on-normalization-of-relations-between-Israel-and-Sudan-23-Oct-2020.aspx .
Офіційний сайт уряду Об'єднаних Арабських Еміратів. https://www.mofa.gov.ae
Aftandilian, G. (2019). Trump’s mixed messages on the Middle East. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2019/2/7/trumps-mixed-messages-on-the-middle-east
Cockburn, P. (2017). The age of Jihad. Islamic State and the Great War for the Middle East. London New York: Verso.
Donald Trump Truth Social Post 06;17 AM EST 02/05/25. https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1887110201410773361.
Gause, F. (2019). Should We Stay or Should we Go? The United States and the Middle East. Survival Journal. №61(5). P. 7–24 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2019.1662114
Halliday, F. (2017). The Middle East in International Relations. Power, Politics, and Ideology. Cambridge University Press.
Hassan, Z., Yerkes, S., Farouk, Y., Dunne, M., Muasher, M., Fakir, I., Bindi, F., Walles, J. (2019). Trump`s Middle East Peace Plan is in the works. What does the region think? Carnegie Endowment for international peace.https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/24/trump-s-middle-east-peace-plan-is-in-works.-what-does-region-think-pub-79365 .
Holland, S. (2020). Israel, UAE to normalize relations in shift in Mideast politics; West Bank annexations on hold. Reuters. http://surl.li/mdxcy .
Holland, S. (2020). With Trump`s help, Israel and the United Arab Emirates reach historic deal to normalize relations. Reuters. http://surl.li/kqyli .
Keiswetter, A. (2018). Trump's national security strategy: implications for the Middle East. MEI. https://www.mei.edu/publications/trumps-national-security-strategy-implications-middle-east .
Kroenig, M. (2018). The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy. Why strategic superiority matters. Oxford University Press.
Lynch, M. (2016). Belligerent Minimalism: The Trump Administration and the Middle East. The Washington Quarterly, 39(4).127–144. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2016/12/belligerent-minimalism-the-trump-administration-and-the-middle-east?lang=en
Mearsheimer, J. (2019). The great delusion: liberal dreams and international realities (Henry L. Stimson letures).
Podeh E. (2020). Trump’s Middle East legacy: the good, the bad and ugly – opinion. The Jerusalem Post. https://www.jpost.com/opinion/trumps-middle-east-legacy-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-opinion-650738 .
Sollich, R. (2020). Trump risking war in the Middle East. Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-trump-risking-war-in-the-middle-east/a-51881982 .
Thompson, J. (2018). Trump’s Middle East policy. CSS. Analyses in security policy. No 233. https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/CSSAnalyse233-EN.pdf
Walt, S. (2018). The Hell of Good Intentions: America's Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Illustrated edition.
Wolff M. (2018). Fire and fury: Inside the Trump White House. USA: Macmillan.
Woodward, B. (2018). Fear: Trump in the White House. Simon & Schuster.
Woodward, B. (2020). Rage. Simon & Schuster. New York.
Yadlin, A. (2020). The Trump Plan: What's Next? INSS Insight. № 1254. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/the-trump-plan-whats-next/
