SHIFT IN THE BALANCE OF POWER IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE U.S. TROOP WITHDRAWAL IN 2021

Abstract

Introduction

Following the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021, the balance of power in the country shifted dramatically. The Taliban quickly seized control, leading to the collapse of the U.S.-backed government. Political and humanitarian crises deepened due to economic sanctions and the international isolation of the new regime. At the same time, ISIS-K intensified terrorist attacks, heightening security threats. China, Russia, and Pakistan strengthened their positions in the region, attempting to fill the power vacuum. The local population faced severe restrictions on rights and freedoms, particularly women and opposition groups. The lack of stability in Afghanistan has long-term implications for the entire region.

Methods

This study employs systemic, comparative, historical, and other research methods. The primary methodology is the dialectical approach, based on the principle of systemic analysis of the studied phenomena in their interrelation, mutual influence, and internal contradictions. This allows for the acquisition of the most reliable and objectively grounded knowledge.

Results

Even assuming that the Taliban will honor the commitments made in Doha, the real threat may come from the continued spread of Islamist fundamentalism and the resulting potential for regional destabilization. As American analysts have pointed out, “one of the conditions of the agreement with Trump, which the Taliban never fulfilled, was to break ties with Al-Qaeda.” This was noted by Robin Wright, a distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center and a former scholar at the Brookings Institution and Carnegie Endowment. She emphasized the warnings expressed by Pentagon officials that under Taliban rule, Al-Qaeda could reconstitute itself within six to twelve months and once again pose a direct threat to U.S. national security.

Conclusions

Thus, the situation in Afghanistan functions as a litmus test for a new era of geopolitics, where international commitments are often sacrificed for tactical expediency. A state without international recognition, a regime without consensus, and a society without guarantees — this triad defines the contemporary Afghan phenomenon. The Taliban faces a paradox: control over territory does not ensure legitimacy, and holding power is not equivalent to full-fledged statehood.