TRANSFORMATION OF ARMENIAN–RUSSIAN RELATIONS IN THE POST-KARABAKH PERIOD: A STRATEGY OF CAUTIOUS DISTANCING

Abstract

Background.  The Second Karabakh War of 2020 and subsequent events surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh became important factors in the transformation of relations between Armenia and the Russian Federation and significantly affected the security and geopolitical configuration in the South Caucasus. The processes of recent years have called into question the effectiveness of the previous model of strategic partnership between the Russian Federation and Armenia, within which Moscow has long been considered a key guarantor of Yerevan's security. In these circumstances, Armenia's political leadership began to gradually seek opportunities to diversify its international relations in order to reduce the country's excessive dependence on Russia and find alternative foreign policy partners willing to develop cooperation with Yerevan.

Methods. The following methods were used in the study: analytical, historical, comparative, systematic approach, content analysis. 

Results. The events of 2020–2023 have become a catalyst for rethinking the role of the Russian Federation as Armenia's main security partner. The decline in trust in the Russian Federation as an ally and security guarantor, which was a consequence of Moscow's lack of response to Azerbaijan's offensive operations and Russia's intention to move towards pragmatism in foreign policy, contributed to the intensification of official Yerevan's contacts with other international actors, in particular the United States of America and the European Union. In addition, Armenia began to seek alternative ways to ensure national security and economic development, given the need to reduce its dependence on the Russian Federation. At the same time, Yerevan's structural dependence on Moscow in the military, economic and energy spheres continues to limit opportunities for diversifying partnerships and rapidly changing its foreign policy course. Armenia's current policy increasingly follows the logic of hedging, which small countries can use in conditions of asymmetric dependence on more powerful partners.

Conclusions. The transformation of relations between Armenia and the Russian Federation is gradual and is not accompanied by a radical geopolitical break. Armenia's policy is increasingly focused on cautiously distancing itself from Russia and diversifying its international partnerships. The further evolution of Russian-Armenian relations will largely depend on the security situation in the South Caucasus, the role of external actors in the region, and Yerevan's ability to reduce its structural dependence on the Russian Federation. Given the impossibility of a sharp departure from strong cooperation with Russia, Moscow will continue to use instruments of influence on Armenia, although the effectiveness of such pressure may gradually diminish.